www.colinLmiller.com

DNA TESTING: MRCA

ESTIMATED TIME OF MOST RECENT COMMON ANCESTOR (MRCA) TABLE
FOR Y-DNA MARKER MATCHES (SAME-SURNAME)

(Regarding FamilyTreeDNA.com Tests)

# Markers Test Match Distance # of Matching Markers 50% Probability of Most Likely Estimate of Time to MRCA 90% Probability of Most Likely Estimate of Time to MRCA 95% Probability of Most Likely Estimate of Time to MRCA Related?
no longer than # Gens # years ago @ 25 yrs/gen # years ago @ 30 yrs/gen no longer than # Gens # years ago @ 25 yrs/gen # years ago @ 30 yrs/gen no longer than # Gens # years ago @25 yrs/gen # years ago @ 30 yrs/gen
67 0 67/67 2 50 / 1918 60 / 1908 4 100 / 1868 120 / 1848 6 150 / 1818 180 / 1788 99.9% likely related to MRCA in 5 or 6 generations or less
1 66/67 4 100 / 1868 120 / 1848 8 200 / 1768 240 / 1728 6 150 / 1743 180 / 1698 Within 9 generations
2 65/67 6 150 / 1818 180 / 1788 12 300 / 1668 360 / 1608 14 350 / 1618 420 / 1548 Within 14 generations
 
37 0 37/37 2 50 / 1918 60 / 1908 5 125 / 1843 150 / 1818 7 175 / 1793 210 / 1758 Within 7 generations (50% chance MRCA was 1 or 2 gens ago)
1 36/37 4 100 / 1868 120 / 1848 8 200 / 1768 240 / 1728 10 250 / 1718 300 / 1668 Within 10 generations (50% chance MRCA was 1-4 gens ago)
2 35/37 6 150 / 1818 180 / 1788 12 300 / 1668 360 / 1608 14 350 / 1618 420 / 1548 Within 14 generations (50% chance MRCA was 1-6 gens ago)
(for matches in Haplogroup R1b, a 37-marker test is recommended)
Perfect match with someone with same surname 90% likely within 16 generations.
25 0 25/25 3 75 / 1893 90 / 1878 10 250 / 1718 300 / 1668 13 325 / 1643 390 / 1578 Related
1 24/25 7 175 / 1793 210 / 1758 16 400 / 1568 480 / 1488 20 500 / 1468 600 / 1368 Related
2 23/25 11 275 / 1693 330 / 1638 23 575 / 1393 690 / 1278 27 675 / 1293 810 / 1158 Probably related
Related if perfect match with someone of same surname. Mismatches most likely with DYS 439, DYS 385 A, 385B, 389-1, or 389-2 from first panel of 12 markers, or DYS458, 459a, 459b, 449, 464a-d from the second panel.
12 0 12/12 7 175 / 1793 210 / 1758 23 575 / 1393 690 / 1278 29 725 / 1243 870 / 1098 Related
1 11/12 17 425 / 1543 510 / 1458 39 975 / 993 1170 / 798 47 1175 / 793 1410 / 558 Possibly Related
2 10/12 31 775 / 1193 930 / 1038 >100 2500+ 3000+ >100 2500+ 3000+ Not Related
Mismatches most likely with DYS 439, DYS 385 A, 385B, 389-1, or 389-2.